It’s amazing how professionals in different fields seem unable to foresee futures that are obvious. You would have thought it was obvious that as soon as there was an economic downturn all those people who had been lent subprime mortages wouldn’t be able to pay the interest on their loans, but in the good times the banks couldn’t see it and rushed like lemmings to lend. You’d have thought it was obvious when oil was $115 dollars a barrel it would stimulate so much prospecting for new oil there would most likely be a glut. Which has now happened. Oil is at $40 a barrel and BP has announced a 70% drop in profits. Bring on that fabled economic adviser the ten year old child.